With the holiday season quickly approaching, major retailers and key consumer publications have released their predictions for the top toy gifts of the year. Together, these lists offer a snapshot of licensing in the toy industry, which typically reflects trends in the broader character/entertainment licensing sector as well.
Here are some takeaways from an analysis of 10 lists, including those from Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Macy’s/Toys ‘R’ Us, yielding an even 400 product mentions:
- The total number of licensed toys cited on these lists is 141, representing a 35.25% share. This is within the normal range for any given year.
- The Disney family (Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars), as in most years, leads the way in licensed products appearing on the holiday prediction lists, collectively accounting for 51 mentions, or 12.75% of the total. Toys tied to Star Wars are the most-often cited of any individual property, appearing 16 times across the lists. Toys tied to Disney-branded properties total 15 across five different IPs (plus one product featuring multiple properties); Encanto is the most popular with five mentions. Pixar has three toys on the list, all tied to the Toy Story/Lightyear franchise. And Marvel has 17 mentions across eight IPs (plus one multi-property toy); Black Panther/Wakanda takes the lead with six mentions.
- In terms of individual properties, there is no single “property of the year” in 2022, with the top-mentioned IP, Star Wars, featured on 16 toys (4% of total mentions). Other often-cited properties include Jurassic World (13 mentions across all the lists), CoComelon (nine), Monster Jam (eight), Super Mario, Bluey, Black Panther/Wakanda, and Pokémon (six each), and Disney Encanto and Gabby’s Dollhouse (five mentions each). All told, there are 46 different properties represented among the 141 licensed toys mentioned on these 10 lists.
- Preschool-specific licenses are featured in 31 mentions, or 7.75% of the total. CoComelon accounts for almost a third of those, with nine mentions; Bluey is second with six and Gabby’s Dollhouse with five. Disney Jr. properties collectively account for three mentions.
- Fourteen of the mentions across all 10 lists (3.5% of the total) are based on properties from outside the realm of entertainment and gaming characters. Several corporate brands are represented—many of them connected to the entertainment/media business—including National Geographic, Harley Davidson, Animal Planet, FAO Schwarz, Wordle, Sharper Image, and the Nintendo brand. Collectibles featuring multiple corporate brands (e.g., Zuru’s 5 Surprise Mini Brands series) are also present. In addition, there are three celebrity mentions: Addison Rae, Ryan Kaji, and JoJo Siwa. One of the top properties on the list, Monster Jam, is somewhat of a hybrid crossing the entertainment, sports, and corporate worlds; it has eight mentions.
- Black characters have a presence on this year’s lists that is notably stronger than in the past, including both licensed and non-licensed toys (mainly dolls in the case of the latter). On the licensing side, Wakanda/Black Panther, Karma’s World, and Marvel’s The Falcon and the Winter Soldier are among the Black character-led properties mentioned across the 10 lists.
- Dinosaurs perennially do well on lists predicting the top holiday toys, but they seem slightly stronger than usual this year. Not only is Jurassic World the second most-cited licensed property, after Star Wars, but numerous generic dinosaurs are represented as well, crossing categories from ride-ons to building kits.
This analysis includes licensed toys only. There are many additional toys on the lists that are not licensed—i.e., they are tied to IP that is owned by the toy company offering the product—but are supported by outbound licensing programs and may be assumed by many consumers to be licensed. Some of those cited frequently include Mattel’s Barbie, Kelly Toys/Jazwares’ Squishmallows, IMC Toys’ Cry Babies, and MGA Entertainment’s L.O.L. Suprise! and Rainbow High. The only toys based on these properties that factor into the discussion in this post are those made by a licensee that is not the property owner.
Note: This post has been updated to reflect that Gabby’s Dollhouse is licensed by NBCUniversal, not Disney.
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